By now, you are probably sick and tired of hearing about the outcome and aftermath of the 2024 American Presidential Election. Every other news article and social media post seems to be jabbering on and on about Donald Trump’s swing state sweep, his questionable picks for cabinet, and the unprecedented situation surrounding the 34 felony charges he was convicted of on May 30, 2024.
In many ways, Trump’s victory is historic. He is a twice-impeached convicted felon elected for two non-consecutive terms who, at the time of his inauguration, will be the oldest president in history to take office. His win is evidence of a massive shift to the political right within the United States, a pattern political scientists are also witnessing across Europe alongside alarming trends in democratic backsliding in every corner of the globe. It is a phenomenon that has caused unease both within and outside of the academic community.
All this being said, what does this mean for people living in Canada?
If there is anything that a majority of Canadians will notice, it will likely be an even lighter wallet than usual. Canada and the United States share the world’s largest and arguably most unique trade relationship — in 2023, $3.6 billion worth of goods and services crossed the border every day. This may very well change soon, however, as a newly-elected Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports.
Trump’s proposal is mind-blowing and could prove to be devastating for economies in all three countries. If it is implemented, individuals and businesses in the U.S. may wind up paying more for products coming from across the border, and exporting companies in Canada and Mexico might have to lay off workers and close factories. The value of the Canadian dollar is also likely to tank, meaning that everything from food products to John Deere tractors will wind up costing more. Having optimism is important, but some economists warn that the impact of such policies could result in the largest recession over the past 100 years.
There is also the issue of defence and border security, the latter of which has been cited as the reason for the ghastly 25% tariff proposal. Canada admittedly does not contribute the agreed amounts of funding to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and defence spending, lagging behind its 2% target by a fair 0.71%. This is something that Donald Trump is expected to put pressure on in the coming years. Alarmingly, Trump warned NATO members that he “would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that have not been paying their fair share, a comment that has potential to jeopardize the strength of the alliance.
On November 29, 2024, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago golf club, supposedly to discuss the 25% tariff threat. However, he returned Saturday, November 30 with no indication that the threat had been deterred. A government source claims that Trudeau had promised border security helicopters to deter illegal activity occurring between the two countries. These events come in an attempt to strengthen the police presence at the borders, as Trump’s tariff threat is motivated not by trade, but by security reasons. After years of targeting Mexico for its flow of migrants into the United States, Trump is now including Canada in his wrath.
A less obvious but equally important impact of a Republican victory will be the empowerment of Conservative politicians in Canada to lean further towards far-right policies. Making note of the extreme extent to which Trump was able to incorporate harmful and exclusionary rhetoric into his campaign and still come out with a victory could embolden local politicians to lean more into far-right rhetoric and fearmongering, especially as Canada leans further and further towards the politics and policies of the federal Conservatives.
Issues like women’s rights, environmental protection, diversity, and Indigenous rights could be endangered by the ripples of a Trump presidency.
As I wrote this article, I noticed a severe lack of personality in my findings. Numbers and data from economists and activists are wildly helpful, of course, but do not carry the same weight as the perspectives of real people in our daily lives. As such, I figured it was essential to get a glimpse into what students at UBC Okanagan felt about this election. After all, there is only so much we can learn about each other from reading news articles about what experts think about the situation. So, to understand what people on campus were feeling, I spent some time walking about and asking anonymous students the question of “what do the results of the American election mean to you?”
I found my first participants in the Commons. When I asked how they felt impacted by the American election, they paused and told me that they did not know. Then, they told me that it did not affect them at all, and jokingly asked, “can I use Chat[GPT]?” After a moment of thought, however, one participant expressed fear about the impact on women’s reproductive rights in Canada and the political seepage from the United States experienced by Canadians. The next group of students I spoke to had a similar concern. “I have family that live in the States,” one interviewee told me, “and lots of them are women.” Another student mentioned the growing buzz on abortion in the House of Commons, and the fear that access to reproductive healthcare in Canada may be tightened.
The uptick in petitions, debates, and bills about abortion and reproductive rights on Parliament Hill has been called out by federal NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, as a “creep” of legislation towards restriction on such rights. It is true, however, that the Leader of the Opposition, Pierre Poilievre, has proclaimed that his government would “not introduce or pass a law banning abortions,” but would instead “ease the challenges of putting a child up for adoption by supporting women through all nine months of pregnancy,” though what that might mean in a Conservative majority government is up for debate.
Even though Poilievre adamantly claims to be pro-choice, the Conservative party hosts many Members of Parliament (MP) that have spoken up against abortion rights and has been accused of letting the anti-abortion MPs “[call] the shots.” Furthermore, Poilievre voted against a bill that would make contraceptives free in Canada under the argument that such legislation would “ban you from having a private drug plan.” This has created uncertainty amongst people concerned about reproductive rights in Canada, as it is difficult to tell exactly what a Conservative government could mean for the future of reproductive rights. The fear of anti-abortion legislation creeping into Canada is not misplaced.
Another UBCO student I interviewed disclosed that they have a sister who is transgender, and told me they were worried about how the Trump victory and general shift to the right may impact their sister’s community. Compared to policies about women’s rights, there has been a much more blatant effort against the rights of trans people in Canada. Such efforts have been concentrated in Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith has tabled legislation that would require parents to opt-in to allow their children to receive education about sex and gender, would require teachers to disclose to parents if their children wish to go by a different name or pronouns, and would prohibit minors under the age of 15 from receiving gender-affirming care.
Similar action has been taken in at least 37 states to the south. Approximately 80% of those bills are directly targeted at trans youth and gender-affirming care for youth. Premier Smith has been accused of creating an Albertan version of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ “don’t say gay” bill by Liberal MPs in Ottawa, suggesting that the policies seen in Alberta have been influenced in part by politicians in the US. Fear of American conservatism leaking into Canadian politics is appropriate.
People on campus also mentioned economic repercussions as something they feared under a new Trump presidency. A classmate and fellow Albertan mentioned to me that they were appalled at the support they have heard for Trump in a nation that exports so many goods to the United States, even in traditionally conservative regions of the country. Another student I spoke with mentioned the billions of dollars of loss in the green energy industry due to switching back to coal that had directly impacted their family. Yet another interviewee mentioned their apprehension surrounding the job market post-graduation. Alongside women’s rights, the economy was the most important issue to people on campus. Once more, I draw your attention back to the proposed 25% tariff that could be detrimental to Canadian industry, jobs, and growth.
Thinking back to my first interviewees, I am drawn to the fact that their initial thought on the results of the election was that it did not affect them. In all honesty, I was disappointed by this confession and experienced a moment of discouragement in writing this piece. However, it was pointed out to me that maybe this initial indifference is a sign of some greater phenomenon amongst Canadians:
American politics are interesting, but we feel as though they do not affect us as much as they really do.
After all, the intricacies and bureaucracy of international politics are not at the forefront of most people’s minds, and many people do not always see domestic politics as being impacted heavily by international goings-on, myself included.
It is easy to feel like these international changes have a minimal impact on our domestic lives here in Canada. While there is nothing we as individuals can do about what happens in the White House, we can impact what happens in Canada, especially when it comes to who we vote for and how we treat each other. I beseech you to consider the importance and influence of international actors on not only our politics, but our morals and beliefs. Living in a world that is constantly connected provides us with an opportunity to seek out information and make ourselves aware of our place in a global society.
It is also important that we keep talking about our hopes and fears for the future. In some of my interviews on campus, I identified real anxiety and concern over our individual futures, as well as the futures of others that we love or share an identity with, and was reminded once more why it is so vital to share such concerns with each other. Conversation is a chance for connection, understanding, and mutual understanding of struggle and success. Conversation is sharing in joys and defeats, rolling up your shirtsleeves, and acknowledging areas in which we can contribute to the betterment of the lives of ourselves and others. Conversation is a vital part of political life, and every life is a political one.
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